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Repetition Learning Curve Calculator (Wright and Crawford)

Total, last-unit and average time for a run of repeated units, from the first unit's time and a learning rate, under Wright's or Crawford's model.

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Imperial · sales tax
The hours the first repetition took, or is expected to take.

Crew hours or clock hours — whichever you want the answer in. The first unit carries the setting out, the questions and the mistakes, which is what the curve then takes away.

The percentage the time falls to each time the number of units doubles.

At 90%, the second unit (or the average of the first two, under Wright's model) takes 90% of the first, the fourth 90% of the second, and so on. 100% means no learning. Measure it from your own repeated work: the rate belongs to a crew, a task and a model, and the same data gives different rates under the two models.

How many repetitions in the run.

Houses on an estate, typical floors of a building, identical precast lifts, or any task repeated by the same crew.

Which quantity the learning rate applies to.

Use the model your rate was measured under. Crawford's rate describes the time of each unit; Wright's describes the average of all the units so far, which falls more slowly than the latest unit does. The same rate gives a shorter total under Wright's model.

Total time for the run

584 hours

Medium confidence

Under Crawford's unit model at 90%, 20 units take 584.3 hours against 800.0 with no learning, and the last takes 25.4. The answer is only as good as the rate, which belongs to a crew and a task and is best measured from the first few units.

Time for unit 20, the last
25.37 hours
Average time per unit
29.22 hours
Time the run would take with no learning
800 hours
Time the learning saves
215.69 hours
Then change the inputs to see how far the answer moves.

Show calculation logic

How this was calculated

Formula source(s)

  • Crawford's unit learning curve: the time for the nth unit is T1 × n^b, where b = log(learning rate) ÷ log 2, so each doubling of the quantity multiplies the unit time by the learning rate; the run's total is the sum of the unit times
  • Wright's cumulative average learning curve (T. P. Wright, 1936, Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes): the average time over the first n units is T1 × n^b, so the run's total is n times that average and the nth unit takes the difference between successive totals; the same rate gives a different answer under the two models

Inputs used

Time for the First Unit (hours)
40
Learning Rate (%)
90
Number of Units
20
Learning Curve Model
Crawford — each unit's own time falls

Intermediate steps

Time for unit 20, the last
25.37 hours
Average time per unit
29.22 hours
Time the run would take with no learning
800 hours
Time the learning saves
215.69 hours
Final result584.31 hours

Confidence note: Under Crawford's unit model at 90%, 20 units take 584.3 hours against 800.0 with no learning, and the last takes 25.4. The answer is only as good as the rate, which belongs to a crew and a task and is best measured from the first few units.

What this calculation does not cover

  • It assumes the same crew repeats the same task without a break. A new crew, a long gap or a design change resets some of the learning, which the curve does not know.
  • Learning does not continue for ever: crews reach a floor set by the work itself. Over a long run the curve understates the time for the later units.
  • The two models give different answers at the same rate. A rate measured under one model should not be used in the other.

Computed in your browser — nothing you enter is uploaded. Presented in US customary units and US trade terminology. Where a formula follows a published standard, that standard and its edition are cited beside it on this page; where none governs, the page says so. Local amendments override model codes — verify against the code in force where you build.

Sources checked 2026-09-22 · v1.0.0

Regulatory standards & verification citations2
  1. Crawford's unit learning curve: the time for the nth unit is T1 × n^b, where b = log(learning rate) ÷ log 2, so each doubling of the quantity multiplies the unit time by the learning rate; the run's total is the sum of the unit times
  2. Wright's cumulative average learning curve (T. P. Wright, 1936, Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes): the average time over the first n units is T1 × n^b, so the run's total is n times that average and the nth unit takes the difference between successive totals; the same rate gives a different answer under the two models
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How to calculate repetition learning curve (wright and crawford) in 5 steps

  1. Time for the First Unit (hours)The hours the first repetition took, or is expected to take.
  2. Learning Rate (%)The percentage the time falls to each time the number of units doubles.
  3. Number of UnitsHow many repetitions in the run.
  4. Learning Curve ModelWhich quantity the learning rate applies to.
  5. Total time for the runThe tool computes the total time for the run from those figures and shows the formula, its sources, and a confidence rating alongside it.

Total time for the run by time for the first unit (hours)

Page defaults, not your figures above.

Time for the First Unit (hours)Total time for the run (hours)
573
10146
20292
50730
1001,461
2002,922

Frequently asked questions

What does a 90% learning rate mean?
That each time the number of units doubles, the time falls to 90% of what it was. Under Crawford's model it is the unit's own time — the 2nd unit takes 90% of the 1st, the 4th 90% of the 2nd, the 8th 90% of the 4th. Under Wright's model it is the average — the average of the first two units is 90% of the first, the average of the first four 90% of that. 100% means no learning at all.
Which model should I use?
The one your rate was measured under. A rate worked out from the times of individual units is a Crawford rate; one worked out from running averages is a Wright rate. The same data gives two different rates under the two models, and using a rate in the wrong one gives the wrong total — Wright's model with a given rate always finishes sooner than Crawford's.
What learning rate is realistic for construction?
Measure it rather than borrow one. Repetitive site work does show learning — typical floors of a frame, identical houses, repeated precast lifts — but how much depends on the crew, the complexity of the task and how continuous the work is, and a rate from someone else's job describes their crew. Time the first few units and fit the rate to them.
Why does the saving slow down?
Because it is set by doublings. Going from 1 unit to 2 is a doubling, and so is going from 50 to 100, so the later units learn as much per doubling but need far more units to get there. On a long run the curve flattens, and in practice a crew reaches a floor the work itself sets.
Preliminary estimate, not certified engineering. This tool produces an indicative quantity calculation for planning purposes only — it is not a certified structural analysis, a guaranteed material takeoff, or a substitute for building department approval. Always verify measurements on-site and have a licensed contractor or structural engineer review any load-bearing, code-sensitive, or safety-critical work before purchasing materials or starting construction. Spotted an arithmetic or standards error? Report it to contact@craftquantities.com with your inputs — a confirmed fix gets a permanent check of its own, so the same mistake cannot come back.